By definition, if a 9-seed defeats an 8-seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket, then it’s technically one of the 2024 March Madness upsets. However, 9-seeds actually have a better record with 78 wins versus 74 losses. Every other first-round seeding matchup has the team with the better seed as the one with the better record. In the NCAA Tournament 2024, the marquee 8 vs. 9 matchup sees No. 8 Mississippi State versus No. 9 Michigan State.
It’s a rare first-round contest between teams from major conferences, as the 2024 March Madness bracket offers just four such matchups, pending the 2024 First Four results. Which MSU should you advance with your 2024 NCAA Tournament picks, and which double-digit seeded teams could be 2024 March Madness bracket busters? Before you make your 2024 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 20 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s dramatic Final Four run as a 4-seed last year. It went an amazing 22-10 in the first round, including an astounding 12-4 in the Midwest and West regions.
Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia and No. 10 Penn State over No. 7 Texas A&M. The model has beaten over 92% of all CBS Sports bracket players in three of the past five tournaments.
Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2024 NCAA Tournament 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2024 March Madness bracket upset picks
One Midwest Region surprise the model has identified: No. 11 seed Oregon knocks off No. 6 South Carolina. Oregon’s record and statistical rankings are skewed since it played nearly half the season without its best player, N’Faly Dante. The 6-foot-11 senior leads the team in averages for points, rebounds, steals and blocks, and his 70.2 field goal percentage would lead the entire sport had he played enough games. During Oregon’s Pac-12 Tournament run, Dante averaged 20.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and shot an unreal 83.3% from the field. He’ll be a matchup nightmare for a South Carolina team that lacks size.
The lack of interior size is evident since South Carolina ranks outside the top 200 in both defensive rebounds and blocks. The Gamecocks have three defeats of 27-plus points, all at road/neutral sites, including a 31-point defeat in its last contest. With the Gamecocks also ranking 64th out of 68 NCAA Tournament teams in creating turnovers, that presents more possessions for Oregon and more opportunities for Dante to make his presence felt.
Another Midwest Region surprise the model has identified: No. 3 Creighton defeats 2-seed Tennessee and 1-seed Purdue on its way to the Final Four. Creighton is coming off an Elite Eight appearance as a 6-seed, so it’s familiar with topping better-seeded teams. This year, it also displayed its potential with a 19-point demolition of No. 1 UConn last month. Leading scorer Baylor Scheierman (18.4 points per game) became the first player in Division I history with 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds, 500 assists and 300 3-pointers for a career.
Creighton could see a Tennessee squad in the Sweet Sixteen that ended its regular season with back-to-back losses. The Vols also have a losing record (2-3) in neutral-site games this year, with all three defeats coming to 2024 NCAA Tournament teams. As for Purdue, its perimeter defense is suspect, as it allowed 39.6% on 3-point attempts in its four losses. Creighton ranks sixth nationally in made 3-pointers per game, and the Bluejays should have ample opportunities from beyond the arc since no Big Ten team forces fewer turnovers than the Boilermakers. See which other 2024 March Madness matchups to target here.
How to make 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2024 NCAA bracket picks.
So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2024 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine to see which 12-seed reaches the Sweet 16, and which region features a 10-seed, 11-seed, and 13-seed delivering first-round shockers and has a 9-seed in the Elite Eight, all from the model that has beaten 92% of bracket players three of the last five tournaments.