Hollinger: After Siakam Trade, 6 Big Questions For Raptors, Pacers And More

As far as surprises go, this wasn’t exactly a shocker.

Everyone knew the Toronto Raptors needed to get something for Pascal Siakam before he hit free agency. Everyone knew the Indiana Pacers needed an upgrade at power forward and were shopping for talent. And it was an open secret in league circles that Bruce Brown was unhappy in Indiana, and his contract was essentially structured this summer to be a salary match for exactly this type of trade. The only thing to haggle over were the details.

Nonetheless, a lot of questions linger as a result of this deal, and with plenty of time remaining before the Feb. 8 trade deadline, it could spur quite a bit of follow-up activity.

In what will end up being two trades, the Raptors and Pacers made a deal that includes a sidebar with the New Orleans Pelicans, with Toronto sending Siakam to Indiana and receiving Brown and Jordan Nwora from the Pacers and Kira Lewis Jr. from the Pels. The Pacers also will send three first-round picks to Toronto, two in 2024 (their own and a second one that is the lesser of Houston’s, Utah’s, Oklahoma City’s or the Clippers’) and a third one in 2026 (top-four protected in 2026 and 2027, turning into two seconds if not conveyed by then). Finally, Indiana will receive a second-round pick from New Orleans that is the lesser of the Pelicans’ or Chicago Bulls’ pick; right now, that would be New Orleans’ pick at No. 51, although it could plausibly improve into the mid-40s.

Some added housekeeping: New Orleans will get a $5.72 million trade exception for Lewis, and the Raptors a $10.17 million exception for Siakam. They have a year to use them. Indiana had to waive James Johnson, and the Raptors had to cut Christian Koloko to complete the deals, but the Pacers are now at 13 players and could easily re-sign Johnson. New Orleans had to send $110,000 to Indiana, the minimum requirement in a trade. The Raptors used the bulk of their Precious Achiuwa exception from a previous trade with the New York Knicks to take in Nwora and generate the larger exception in this deal.

Now, let’s get to some of the big lingering questions in the wake of this deal, which has a chance of being the biggest one of this trade season in terms of a brand-name player shifting teams:

Do the Raptors tank?

The Raptors (16-25) entered Wednesday tied with the Memphis Grizzlies for the league’s sixth-worst record, which creates a verrrrry interesting situation for Toronto because it owes a top-six protected pick to San Antonio from the Jakob Poeltl trade. Landing with the sixth-worst record doesn’t guarantee they keep the pick; in fact, they would only pull it off in slightly less than 50 percent of scenarios. Additionally, the 2025 draft is regarded as much stronger than the 2024 edition, so it’s possible the Raptors would rather pick in 2025 even if they end up in a worse slot.

Also, tanking this year is no easy feat. As I noted earlier this week, landing a worse record than any of the Forlorn Five is going to take some serious effort, so sixth-worst is probably the “best” Toronto can do. Additionally, even finishing below an injury-bedraggled Memphis team would likely be a feat. I’m just not sure a true tank is realistic, although even the seventh-worst record conveys some decent possibility of lucking into a top-four pick.

On the other hand, is it so bad to fork over the 10th pick or so in what is perceived as a weak draft and then retain the flexibility to have full control over their picks going forward rather than have it hang over them again in 2024-25? The bottom half of the Eastern Conference isn’t exactly running away from the Raptors; getting into the Play-In Tournament and winning twice to grab the eighth seed doesn’t feel like a remote possibility, even without Siakam. It seems like playing this out honestly is the best strategy for Toronto.

Brown also could impact that, of course, but his stay in Canada may be brief, which takes us to our next question.

Is Bruce Brown a keeper?

The most interesting part of the deal for the Raptors is the acquisition of Brown, who might be duplicative as another not-great shooter and another 6-foot-5 guard. (The Raptors very quickly have gone from a bunch of 6-9 guys to a bunch of 6-5 guys.)

Brown can be traded again before the deadline but not aggregated with other players. With a $22 million salary and a $23 million team option for next year, the Raptors could go in several directions. Notably, Toronto can generate max cap space if it declines Brown’s option and lets Gary Trent Jr. walk; this takes advantage of Immanuel Quickley’s low cap hold and the final season of Scottie Barnes’ rookie deal before both are on the books at a much higher number in the summer of 2025.

If the Raptors are leaning this way, they would probably also be very interested in moving Chris Boucher ($10.1 million for next year) and Jalen McDaniels ($4.7 million for next year) before the deadline, although moving them at the draft is also a possibility. Trent’s expiring $18.6 million deal seems another strong possibility for relocation, if the Raptors can get a decent return.

Here’s the rub, though: If you’re going to decline Brown’s option, you’re better off trading him now and getting something rather than potentially losing him for nothing. It’s basically Siakam’s situation all over again, except at a lower level. Several teams could use Brown and have plausible salary matches and picks to dangle, most notably Orlando (Markelle Fultz) and New York (Evan Fournier). Realistically, we’re probably talking about multiple seconds rather than a first, but it’s not nothing — Brown has value.

Finally, one interesting alternative for the Raptors — or whatever Brown’s next team is — is to decline the option and then still re-sign him at a lower number as a non-Bird free agent. He wouldn’t use any of their exception money. Bigger picture, Toronto still has a lot of decisions to make.

Did the Pacers give up too much?

I know Raptors fans had dreams of getting one of the Pacers’ past two lottery picks (Jarace Walker or Bennedict Mathurin), but that was never going to be realistic with Siakam on an expiring contract. Besides, the entire logic for Indiana to make this trade is to max out the current roster; Mathurin and Walker still factor into that.

In this case, getting three first-round picks of modest value is probably the best the Raptors could reasonably hope to do. In fact, one presumes they agreed to do the deal now, three weeks ahead of the deadline, precisely because there was no comparable offer on the horizon. The 2024 draft is not regarded as a good one, and the picks Toronto received will be in the back half of the first round. Additionally, Indiana figures to be a strong team going forward, so the top-four protected pick from the Pacers in 2026 might be another one on in the 20s.

On the other hand, this is a lot more than Toronto got for Fred VanVleet. The specter of losing another All-Star for nothing had to be hanging over the Raptors a bit on this one.

For Indiana, getting Bird rights on Siakam was key. The Pacers can have cap room in the offseason, but it would have been tough for them to generate enough to sign Siakam outright; they would have had to renounce Obi Toppin and Buddy Hield and cut T.J. McConnell, and that still wouldn’t have been enough if Tyrese Haliburton makes All-NBA and his extension becomes a supermax. Making a deal now gives the Pacers a lot more optionality for the rest of the roster. Additionally, the fit here is hard to deny. Siakam can fly; Indy’s already turbocharged pace just became even more potent.

What does Siakam’s next contract look like?

You don’t really know how to feel about this trade until you know what type of deal Siakam will sign this summer. (Siakam is eligible to sign an extension for up to two years and $81 million before then, but nobody expects that to actually happen since he can sign for much more after the season.)

Reports that both sides are optimistic about a contract convey the impression that there may have been an understanding about what his next deal might look like. (This is technically against the rules, and I, of course, would have never done such a thing when I worked in an NBA front office, but I have heard stories of other teams doing it.) With Siakam still being a star-caliber player and previous chatter that he’d be looking for a max deal, I can’t imagine he offered to come back cheaply.

Nonetheless, there’s a strong chance the next deal is not that favorable for Indiana, and the Pacers essentially forked out draft picks for the right to overpay him. Siakam turns 30 in April and makes $37.9 million; the maximum he could sign with any rival team is four years and roughly $183 million, depending on where next season’s salary cap lands. The fact that everyone seems hunky-dory on the future makes it seems like his next deal might be near that figure, and the fact that the Pacers have a sunk cost of three firsts means that any pressure from outside (in the form of, say, a max offer from the Philadelphia 76ers) would pressure them to meet that price.

At that point, I’m not sure it’s great to sacrifice three firsts to turn Brown into overpaying Siakam into his 30s. You’d feel a lot better about this as the Pacers if you only had to guarantee three years, especially if you could whittle the number down below the max. A four-year deal for $150 million with a lightly or non-guaranteed fourth year seems a lot more manageable and would also make it easier to pivot to a different max contract next to Haliburton before his own future extension later in the decade.

Siakam’s contract is important for another reason: It directly impacts what else the Pacers can have on their roster. Hield and Toppin are free agents after the season, and McConnell has a non-guaranteed deal. If we assume the Pacers won’t pay luxury tax, then a $40 million cap hit for Siakam leaves only $36 million for everyone else. That goes down to $26 million if they don’t cut McConnell and $19 million if Haliburton’s deal becomes a supermax. You can see pathways to keeping Hield if you squint, but … it’s tight.

Is there another move for Indy?

One reason you could argue for the Pacers to make this move is because they still have enough left asset-wise to make another move for a big fish if the opportunity presented itself. The Pacers still have Walker, Mathurin and first-round picks in 2028 and 2030 they can trade, plus a slew of second-round picks and pick swaps.

Indy has a good team right now, one that could push to get a top-four seed in the East if Haliburton comes back healthy, but true contender status will remain elusive without an upgrade on the wing.

Having a three-star system with Siakam, Haliburton and Unidentified Star X would be expensive, but that’s probably the type of move the Pacers need to vault into true contender status. Walk through the cap details, and the logical endgame is a consolidation-type trade that sends out three or four players for one. Dive further, and you’ll see that’s much more easily done right now when Hield’s expiring contract can be part of the deal.

That doesn’t eliminate the future possibility, especially if Hield or Toppin comes back on a tradeable Brown-esque contract, but you can see why the Pacers might try to strike immediately if a good wing hits the trade market. That part essentially becomes the missing piece for them.

Are the Spurs the real winners here?

As explained above, while this deal marginally increases the odds of the pick not conveying to San Antonio, the Spurs seem like the real winners in this trade.

The pick they were getting from Toronto could plausibly have been in the teens or even low 20s had things shaken out differently for the Raptors; instead, San Antonio is looking at possibly the best-case scenario of the seventh pick in 2024; and even if it pushes to 2025, a Raptors team rebuilding around Barnes may take some lumps and leave the Spurs with a good pick in a strong draft. Given that the Spurs seem to have adequately filled their center position for the foreseeable future, the Poeltl trade is looking like a giant win for them.

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(Top photo of Pascal Siakam and Bennedict Mathurin: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)