By Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK (Reuters) – New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Thursday the strong state of the U.S. economy means there’s no pressing case to lower interest rates right now.
“I definitely don’t feel urgency to cut interest rates” given the current strength of the economy, Williams said at the Semafor’s World Economy Summit in Washington.
“We have a strong economy, we want a strong economy, that’s all very good news,” Williams said. “But it also means that the rates that we have haven’t caused the economy to slow too much” which argues for holding steady while working to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.
Williams, who also serves as vice chair of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said he continues to expect price pressures to return to target.
“My expectation is, as inflation gets all the way to 2% on a sustained basis, as the economy is in good balance, interest rates will need to be lower at some point,” he said, adding that “the timing of that is driven by the economy.” Williams noted the path to getting inflation back to target has been “a little bit of a bumpy road” even as the overall trend has been toward weaker price pressures.
Williams spoke as a broad range of central bank officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have been backing away from offering guidance about the prospect of rate cuts happening any time soon. Fed officials, who penciled in three 2024 rate cuts at the March 19-20 policy meeting, had been expecting a fairly imminent easing until unexpectedly sturdy data at the start of this year showed inflation is proving to be more enduring.
Some banks are now projecting no rate cuts this year given the economy’s vigor and above-target inflation. Traders and investors have marked down the scope of easing and pushed back potential start dates for a cut in the Fed’s policy rate, which has been in the 5.25%-5.50% range since last July.
A Reuters poll released on Thursday showed economists expect the first rate cut to happen in September, with half of respondents forecasting there will only be two reductions this year. Until recently, many had expected the first cut would happen in June.
The inflation landscape has even raised questions of whether the Fed may have to hike rates again to ensure price pressures ebb. Williams said that appears unlikely but noted that it was impossible to rule out.
A rate increase is “not my baseline, my expectation right now is interest rates are in a good place and eventually, at some point, we’d want to lower interest rates,” he said. But “if the data are telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goals, then we would obviously want to do that.”
Williams also said he doesn’t see a case for the Fed changing its 2% inflation target. Some have argued for a higher setting, which would make the central bank’s job easier, but officials have broadly rejected that view.