(Reuters) – Stalled inflation buoyed in part by housing market strength means the Federal Reserve will need to hold borrowing costs steady for an “extended period,” and possibly all year, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday.
“I would need to see multiple positive inflation readings suggesting that the disinflation process is on track” to support a rate cut, Kashkari said at a Milken Institute conference.
He noted that he will also be tracking developments in the labor market, where a “marked” turn to weakness could also justify a rate cut.
The bar for a rate hike is “quite high but it’s not infinite,” Kashkari said. “There is a limit when we say, ‘OK, we need to do more.’ I think it’s much more likely we would just sit here for longer than we expect, or the public expects right now, until we see what effect our monetary policies have.”
In March he thought the Fed would need to deliver two rate cuts this year, he said, and by next month when Fed policymakers publish fresh projections he may mark that forecast down to just one cut or even no cuts, depending on the data.