© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller poses before a speech at the San Francisco Fed, in San Francisco, California, U.S., March 31, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo
By Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. is “within striking distance” of the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation goal, but the central bank should not rush to cut its benchmark interest rate until it is clear lower inflation will be sustained, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday.
And regardless of when rate cuts begin, Waller said the central bank should proceed “methodically and carefully,” not make the sort of large, fast reductions used when the Fed is trying to bail out the economy from a shock or a pending downturn.
“The key thing is the economy is doing well. It is giving us the flexibility to move carefully and methodically. We can see how the data comes in, see if progress is being sustained,” Waller said in comments in a moderated online discussion organized by the Brookings Institution. “The worst thing we’d have is it all reverses after we’ve already started to cut. We really want to see evidence that this progress…in the real data and the inflation data continues. I believe it will.”
Waller’s remarks served as a counter to market expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates at its March meeting and lop perhaps 1.5 percentage points from the benchmark policy rate by the end of the year. After he spoke traders pared bets that the Fed would in March reduce a policy rate that has been left in the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% since July.
The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
SHIFT IN EMPHASIS
If Waller expressed a more careful approach to coming cuts than anticipated by investors, his remarks also showcased the debate taking shape among policymakers on the appropriate pace of cuts, and acknowledged that the emphasis has shifted from controlling inflation alone to managing a more balanced set of risks to ensure the Fed’s maximum employment goal stays in hand as well.
“While the emphasis of policy…has been on pushing down inflation, given the strength of the current labor market the FOMC’s focus now is likely to be more balanced: keeping inflation on a 2% path while also keeping employment near its maximum level. Today, I view the risks to our employment and inflation mandates as being more closely balanced,” he said.
Recent data “is almost as good as it gets” for the central bank with economic growth gradually slowing, the unemployment rate remaining low, and important measures of inflation now hitting the Fed’s 2% target for the past six months, said Waller, a key architect of aggressive Fed tightening who now agrees the time for cuts is likely approaching.
“The data we have received the last few months is allowing the Committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024,” Waller said in remarks prepared for delivery at the Brookings Institution event. However, he cautioned that until any risk has passed that inflation will resurge or recent trends reverse, policy changes should “be carefully calibrated and not rushed.”
“I am becoming more confident that we are within striking distance of achieving a sustainable level of 2% PCE inflation. I think we are close,” Waller said, referring to the personal consumption expenditures price index that the Fed uses to set its inflation target.
“But I will need more information in the coming months confirming or (conceivably) challenging the notion that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our inflation goal,” before backing rate cuts, he said.