The US claimed a major victory on Thursday, orchestrating a sweeping prisoner exchange with Russia that returned high-profile captives.
The deal — the result of months of negotiations between the US, a slew of allies, and Russia — spanned 24 people in total.
Russia got 8 people in exchange — one captive for every two it released.
But, experts said, the numbers obscure the true power dynamic at play: Russia regained dangerous operatives in exchange for relatively everyday figures caught up in events.
Smiles in the Kremlin
Andrew Payne, a City University of London lecturer in foreign policy, told BI that Putin won the historic deal.
“The prisoners that Putin wanted back were hitmen, intelligence officers, money launderers, and lots of people who were serving the direct interest of the Kremlin,” Payne said.
In contrast, Payne said, the prisoners that President Joe Biden wanted back were mostly journalists or people “who were arrested on comparatively flimsy and much less serious charges.”
A central figure in the exchange was Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov.
He was serving a life sentence in Berlin for the murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvil, a Georgian military officer who angered Russia and paid with his life.
Putin hinted at a possible exchange for Krasikov in February, telling Tucker Carlson that he would be willing to exchange a person of “patriotic sentiments” who “eliminated a bandit” — a clear reference to Krasikov.
“You could say in that sense that Putin got a better deal,” Payne said.
Sergej Sumlenny, founder of a German think tank, the European Resilience Initiative Center, said the deal set a precedent that would lead Russia to take more captives and seek more trades.
In an X post on Thursday, he said Russia will be emboldened to take more hostages to deploy as a “magic card” to return its own.
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In a separate X post, he said: “Expect facing more hostage-takings.”
In an interview with the BBC while Gershkovich was still detained, Emma Tucker, the editor in chief of The Wall Street Journal, gave a similar assessment.
She said Gershkovich was “picked up in order to be traded” and that Russia was “stockpiling Americans in its jails in order to be able to trade them at a later date.”
Sam Greene, a professor of Russian politics at King’s College London, believes the Kremlin may be using the prisoners’ exchange to try to isolate Ukraine amid its grinding invasion.
“By making this exchange, Moscow is seeking to demonstrate that (a) it can negotiate in good faith, and (b) it is willing to do deals with the West,” he wrote in an X thread.
This, he said, will “strengthen the hand” of those who have been urging Western countries to force a cease-fire on Ukraine.
It will also weaken the position of advocates for Ukraine, who generally believe that a cease-fire would give only temporary relief, and ultimately lead to more fighting.
Biden’s signal to the US
US officials said the deal marked the largest and most complex prisoner exchange since the Cold War.
Biden hailed the exchange as a “feat of diplomacy” and suggested it would be beyond the powers of his rival, former President Donald Trump.
Though Putin won on a transactional level, the deal also greatly benefited Biden, Payne said.
He said the deal showed “the moral contrast” between Russia and the US that will burnish Biden’s legacy.
“Maybe Putin got more, but the US certainly has a moral high ground here,” Payne said.
He added that this deal — which would have been a “very complex negotiation” over several months — could disprove doubts of whether Biden is component enough to round out his presidential term.
“For Biden, this deal signals that he’s still in charge and still has what it takes to manage high-stakes diplomacy,” he said.