Investing.com — The upbeat September jobs report and the significant upward revisions to GDP and GDI suggest the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point (bp) rate cut in September was “not warranted,” according to Bank of America strategists.
BofA said its discussions with clients have quickly shifted from debating whether the Fed would cut by 25bp or 50bp in November to questioning if a rate cut is needed at all. Some are even speculating whether the Fed might skip a November cut to offset the larger-than-expected September cut.
However, the bank’s strategists believe that, even if the Fed later determines the September cut was excessive, it is unlikely to be deterred from cutting by 25bp in November, particularly with strong labor data.
“Governor Waller said as much in his most recent comments. As long as the Fed feels comfortable that broad-based disinflation is on track, it can keep cutting rates back to neutral,” strategists said in a Tuesday note.
While the labor market has recently overshadowed inflation concerns, attention is turning back to the CPI ahead of Thursday’s data release. BofA expects a core CPI reading of 0.3% month-on-month, above consensus, but believes the core PCE will come in at a milder 0.2%.
It notes that this should be soft enough for the Fed to proceed with a 25bp cut in November, as the year-over-year rate “would drop due to favorable base effects,” and Chair Powell has gained some flexibility by “de-emphasizing the stickiness in housing inflation,” strategists said.
In recent weeks, economist and former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian’s term “data point dependence” has captured the market’s heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic data releases.
BofA strategists agree, noting that while it’s natural for the Fed to be data-dependent, not all data surprises are equally meaningful.
Still, the Fed’s focus on not falling behind the curve has “led markets to react to data surprises as though they are all news and no noise. And that probably isn’t going to change anytime soon,” strategists remarked.