MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s annual inflation likely continued to moderate in the first half of September, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday, raising expectations the central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate again in its announcement this week.
The median estimate from 11 analysts forecast the overall consumer price index (CPI) would fall to 4.73%, which would be its fourth consecutive fortnight of decline, though it would still be above the official target of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point.
The core inflation index, which excludes products with high volatility to better gauge price trends, is projected to decrease to 3.97%, which would be its lowest level since February 2021.
In the first 15 days of September, prices were estimated to have increased by 0.15% compared to the previous two weeks, with core prices up by 0.23%, according to the Reuters poll.
The central bank’s board cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in early August in a divided vote. The board anticipated that the inflationary environment would allow it to discuss greater monetary easing.
The Bank of Mexico’s next monetary policy decision will be announced on Thursday, just over a week after the Federal Reserve began a process of easing its monetary policy with an aggressive half-percentage-point rate cut, paving the way for the Mexican central bank to lower interest rates again.
The National Statistics Institute, INEGI, will release on Tuesday the consumer price data for the first half of September.